From January to February 2022, the total value of social logistics in China reached 51.8 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year on year based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level of 2019 before the pandemic, indicating that overall logistics demand is still in the recovery channel and logistics operation is off to a stable start.
From the perspective of structure, internally, the effects of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continue to show, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics has maintained rapid growth. Externally, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to normal level, and the demand for import logistics continues to fall.
New drivers of rapid growth in demand for industrial logistics continued to strengthen
Enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner after the holiday, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained rapid growth. In January-February, the total volume of industrial goods logistics grew 7.5 percent year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth in 2020-2021.
In terms of structure, new growth drivers continue to gain momentum and play a stronger role in supporting demand for industrial logistics. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing continued to grow rapidly. In the first two months of this year, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4 percent and 9.6 percent year-on-year respectively, 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points higher than that of December last year.
In terms of industries, computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, and instrument manufacturing all registered double-digit growth, with their growth rates accelerating from the previous quarter. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year on year, 4.4 percentage points faster than in December last year, especially the output of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year on year, and continued to grow at a high speed on the basis of the double growth of the previous year.
The recovery of people's consumption and logistics demand will accelerate and new business forms will continue to gain momentum
From January to February, driven by online promotion factors such as "Online Chinese New Year Festival", the logistics demand of consumer goods manufacturing in the production end recovered faster, while the logistics demand of e-commerce shopping in the sales end remained hot. From the production end, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry accelerated, with the logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry growing by 9.7% year-on-year in January-February, 5.2 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From the perspective of the sales end, the new business model is still playing an obvious role in helping. From January to February, the total volume of unit and resident goods logistics increased by 10.5% year on year. Among them, physical goods online retail sales increased by 12.3% year on year, e-commerce logistics index shows that the first two months of e-commerce logistics business volume growth rate of more than 25% year on year, rural business volume growth is also close to 25%, maintain a rapid growth trend.
Import price drops logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had some impact on China's relevant imports. Import flows fell 3.5 percent year-on-year in January-February, the fifth consecutive month of decline, the data showed. However, it should also be noted that since this year, the decline of import material flow has narrowed from the previous quarter. With the gradual recovery of our economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of import will also be expanded.
From the perspective of import structure, the bulk commodities were affected by factors such as sharply rising prices. The imports of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel all declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9%, respectively. The demand for meat imports in agricultural products maintained a downward trend, down 33% year on year.
Logistics market scale expansion industry accelerated integration
Logistics market scale continues to expand, industry integration accelerated. Since 2021, the logistics industry market scale has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, up 9.7 percent year on year, faster than the level in 2019 before the pandemic.
With the growth of new drivers, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts forward higher requirements for logistics services. Especially since the pandemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has been significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The income proportion of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China rose to the highest level in recent years, the overall industrial concentration has been steadily rising, and the industry concentration has been further increased in the subdivision field, such as the leading enterprises of express express transportation, through mergers and reorganization. According to data from the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel service in January-February was 85.3, significantly higher than that of the whole year of 2021 and the same period.
Transportation business growth is fast, logistics enterprises operate more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society increased by 15.5% year on year in February, among which highway freight volume increased by 21.1%. In terms of the business of enterprises, the total business index in February did not decline, but increased, with the index rising 0.1 percentage point from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by the resumption of production and other factors, the physical volume of the logistics industry and the business volume of enterprises have maintained a good growth trend, and at the same time, the logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. In February, the capital turnover index and equipment utilization index in the logistics industry climate index rose 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and maintained at more than 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises take the initiative to improve the efficiency of capital use, improve the efficiency of logistics equipment operation, and play a certain role in regulating the tight balance between supply and demand of personnel in the first two months of the year.
Overall, the macroeconomic recovery continued in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand maintained a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry climate index are 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, which are higher than last month. The business activity expectation index has been running in the high economic range for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics enterprises have a good expectation for the development of the industry.
However, we should also note that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, and it has become more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of its industrial and supply chains.
From the perspective of the external environment, the impact of the epidemic is still continuing in some regions, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are continuing, which may lead to increased pressure to ensure supply and price stability of key commodities due to poor cross-border logistics channels, tight shipping capacity, rising freight rates and supply chain impact. This requires follow-up analysis and close attention.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are increasing, and the upward pressure of raw materials and labor costs is increasing. The overall recovery of the industry needs to be further consolidated.
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of oil and other raw materials continues to rise, the price of logistics services has not seen a significant increase. In February, the service price index of the logistics industry climate index fell by 0.2 percentage points instead of rising, and the highway logistics and coastal bulk freight prices fell month-on-month, which showed that under the background of the current homogeneous competition of freight services, the bargaining power of the industry was low, and there was a certain lag in the linkage between cost and logistics service prices.
Second, industry profitability is under further pressure. Key survey data show that from January to February, the cost of logistics business of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year on year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year on year, which is significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above the scale. Among them, due to the rise in commodity prices, the structural shortage of labor and other factors, the cost of fuel and labor respectively increased by more than two digits. From the perspective of profit, the losses of key logistics enterprises in January and February were nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, leading to further compression of profit space. Overall revenue margins were around 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. Among them, small, medium and micro logistics enterprises suffered more obvious damage. The profit margin of small and micro logistics enterprises was less than 3%, lower than the same period last year, and there was a big gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.